Comments for Bob Hartsook's Blog http://hartsookcompanies.com/blog Committed to advancing fundraising and philanthropy Sat, 31 Jul 2010 05:16:55 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7.1 hourly 1 Comment on 2009 Giving Goes Up 2% and Erases ’08 loss! by Bob http://hartsookcompanies.com/blog/2009-giving-goes-up-2-and-erases-%e2%80%9908-loss/comment-page-1/#comment-18 Bob Mon, 17 May 2010 19:44:48 +0000 http://hartsookcompanies.com/blog/?p=115#comment-18 Please click below to see an interesting discussion that resulted from this topic by Holly Hall at the Chronicle of Philanthropy titled 'A 'Silent Giving' Phenomenon?' http://philanthropy.com/blogPost/A-Silent-Giving-Phenomenon-/23641/ Please click below to see an interesting discussion that resulted from this topic by Holly Hall at the Chronicle of Philanthropy titled ‘A ‘Silent Giving’ Phenomenon?’

http://philanthropy.com/blogPost/A-Silent-Giving-Phenomenon-/23641/

]]> Comment on 2009 Giving Goes Up 2% and Erases ’08 loss! by Philanthropy Daily Digest | Tactical Philanthropy http://hartsookcompanies.com/blog/2009-giving-goes-up-2-and-erases-%e2%80%9908-loss/comment-page-1/#comment-17 Philanthropy Daily Digest | Tactical Philanthropy Sat, 15 May 2010 01:01:31 +0000 http://hartsookcompanies.com/blog/?p=115#comment-17 [...] 2009 Giving Goes Up 2% and Erases ’08 loss! :Bob Hartsook’s Blog This is a guess, not a fact, but it is plausible. Giving is closely correlated with GDP and amazingly GDP made a new all time high this past quarter completely erasing the recession (when you measure before the effects of inflation). (tags: philanthropy) [...] [...] 2009 Giving Goes Up 2% and Erases ’08 loss! :Bob Hartsook’s Blog This is a guess, not a fact, but it is plausible. Giving is closely correlated with GDP and amazingly GDP made a new all time high this past quarter completely erasing the recession (when you measure before the effects of inflation). (tags: philanthropy) [...]

]]> Comment on Giving USA Reports Victory for Philanthropy! by Ann Kaplan http://hartsookcompanies.com/blog/giving-usa-reports-victory-for-philanthropy/comment-page-1/#comment-4 Ann Kaplan Thu, 16 Jul 2009 14:04:52 +0000 http://hartsookcompanies.com/blog/?p=63#comment-4 Giving USA is more than the pie charts showing where money came from and where it went. It is a detailed chronicle of philanthropy in America. As an historical record and chronicle of events, it is incredibly thorough and is on the shelf remarkably quickly. As the director of the Voluntary Support of Education (VSE) survey, conducted since 1957 by the Council for Aid to Education (CAE), I offer the following comments. CAE’s data on giving to institutions of higher education is the gold standard. We are focused on maintaining the definitive record on giving to higher education institutions in the United States. We are just now starting to receive surveys for the academic fiscal year that ended on June 30, 2009. (I have received three surveys so far.) So, the jury is still out on what happened in higher education fundraising between July 1, 2008 and June 30, 2009. CAE doesn’t forecast. We wait for the hard numbers, and we estimate based on a large volume of surveys that contain 85 to 90 percent of all the contributions to higher education institutions. Giving USA’s education number differs from CAE’s in three ways. First, it covers a different time period. Second, it is a forecast, not an estimate. Third, Giving USA’s education data include giving to more organizations than colleges and universities. The results from the VSE study and Giving USA will, therefore, always be different. If they are ever the same, it will be a coincidence. On the topic of forecasting versus estimating, if we want Giving USA to cease forecasting, then we will have to wait longer for the data. That is the tradeoff. If we want harder numbers, we can look at Giving USA's 2007 figures in its 2008 book. If we want the best forecast a team of economists and practitioners can get a year ahead of any hard data, we turn to Giving USA’s projected 2008 numbers. We may not think of events that happened six months ago as the future, but where hard data are concerned, they reside there. Even the government, with much greater resources, continually revises such data series as Gross Domestic Product and the Consumer Price Index. In fact, some of the information Giving USA relies on is regularly revised by source organizations, such as the Commerce Department, the IRS, and the Treasury Department, and Giving USA then has to revise also. Another relevant matter is that in economic booms or crises, Giving USA has to prove what we already know instinctively. Who doubts that giving declined to a variety of institutions in recent months? But, proving something takes longer than being pretty sure about something, and the standard is stricter for proof than for being pretty sure. When some of the independent variables that affect giving change as dramatically as they just have, Giving USA's forecasts could be off by more than when the economic landscape is more stable and when the changes in that landscape are incremental But I'm glad the Giving USA advisors and staff stuck to their models because models are worth nothing if you apply them and alter them intuitively. In the case of philanthropic trends, the models will be right more often than intuition will be right. So, while we wait for the hard data, modeling is the way to go. CAE provides data to Giving USA and serves on its advisory committee. We are collegial organizations, not competitors or colluders. As more subsectors collect data about themselves, this will help Giving USA forecast. Giving USA is doing an excellent job of amassing a large volume of information from various sources and publishing this valuable record. CAE looks forward to a continuing relationship with Giving USA that will benefit the nonprofit sector. Giving USA is more than the pie charts showing where money came from and where it went. It is a detailed chronicle of philanthropy in America. As an historical record and chronicle of events, it is incredibly thorough and is on the shelf remarkably quickly. As the director of the Voluntary Support of Education (VSE) survey, conducted since 1957 by the Council for Aid to Education (CAE), I offer the following comments.

CAE’s data on giving to institutions of higher education is the gold standard. We are focused on maintaining the definitive record on giving to higher education institutions in the United States. We are just now starting to receive surveys for the academic fiscal year that ended on June 30, 2009. (I have received three surveys so far.) So, the jury is still out on what happened in higher education fundraising between July 1, 2008 and June 30, 2009. CAE doesn’t forecast. We wait for the hard numbers, and we estimate based on a large volume of surveys that contain 85 to 90 percent of all the contributions to higher education institutions.

Giving USA’s education number differs from CAE’s in three ways. First, it covers a different time period. Second, it is a forecast, not an estimate. Third, Giving USA’s education data include giving to more organizations than colleges and universities. The results from the VSE study and Giving USA will, therefore, always be different. If they are ever the same, it will be a coincidence.

On the topic of forecasting versus estimating, if we want Giving USA to cease forecasting, then we will have to wait longer for the data. That is the tradeoff. If we want harder numbers, we can look at Giving USA’s 2007 figures in its 2008 book. If we want the best forecast a team of economists and practitioners can get a year ahead of any hard data, we turn to Giving USA’s projected 2008 numbers.

We may not think of events that happened six months ago as the future, but where hard data are concerned, they reside there. Even the government, with much greater resources, continually revises such data series as Gross Domestic Product and the Consumer Price Index. In fact, some of the information Giving USA relies on is regularly revised by source organizations, such as the Commerce Department, the IRS, and the Treasury Department, and Giving USA then has to revise also.

Another relevant matter is that in economic booms or crises, Giving USA has to prove what we already know instinctively. Who doubts that giving declined to a variety of institutions in recent months? But, proving something takes longer than being pretty sure about something, and the standard is stricter for proof than for being pretty sure. When some of the independent variables that affect giving change as dramatically as they just have, Giving USA’s forecasts could be off by more than when the economic landscape is more stable and when the changes in that landscape are incremental

But I’m glad the Giving USA advisors and staff stuck to their models because models are worth nothing if you apply them and alter them intuitively. In the case of philanthropic trends, the models will be right more often than intuition will be right. So, while we wait for the hard data, modeling is the way to go.

CAE provides data to Giving USA and serves on its advisory committee. We are collegial organizations, not competitors or colluders. As more subsectors collect data about themselves, this will help Giving USA forecast. Giving USA is doing an excellent job of amassing a large volume of information from various sources and publishing this valuable record. CAE looks forward to a continuing relationship with Giving USA that will benefit the nonprofit sector.

]]> Comment on Now Is The Best Time In U.S. History For Fundraising by BDAVIS http://hartsookcompanies.com/blog/now-is-the-best-time-in-us-history-for-fundraising/comment-page-1/#comment-3 BDAVIS Tue, 02 Jun 2009 16:56:06 +0000 http://hartsookcompanies.com/blog/?p=23#comment-3 Fundraising should be a profession full of optimists, those who see opportunity when noone else does. It is frustrating to here collegues or even some conference speakers talk about the challenges that the economy is putting on our profession. Now is the time to build relationships and to properly steward your current and potential donors. Thank you for placing this perspective in front of fundraisers. Blake Davis Fundraising should be a profession full of optimists, those who see opportunity when noone else does. It is frustrating to here collegues or even some conference speakers talk about the challenges that the economy is putting on our profession. Now is the time to build relationships and to properly steward your current and potential donors. Thank you for placing this perspective in front of fundraisers.

Blake Davis

]]> Comment on Read This Before You Ask for Estate Pledges by BDAVIS http://hartsookcompanies.com/blog/read-this-before-you-ask-for-estate-pledges/comment-page-1/#comment-2 BDAVIS Tue, 02 Jun 2009 16:53:16 +0000 http://hartsookcompanies.com/blog/?p=46#comment-2 Great stuff, as a fundraising professional primarily focused on Annual and Leadership Gifts, it is incredible how often an estate gift is brought up. A fundraiser, regardless of age or focus, should be able to speak comfortably about estate giving and bequests. Thank you for your blog. Blake Davis Great stuff, as a fundraising professional primarily focused on Annual and Leadership Gifts, it is incredible how often an estate gift is brought up. A fundraiser, regardless of age or focus, should be able to speak comfortably about estate giving and bequests. Thank you for your blog.

Blake Davis

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